Mixed signals in Q1 2025 freight data with declines in shipments index and spending index.

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-05-08 17:22:00

Recent Q1 data released by U.S. Bank showed declines in the Shipments Index by 5.8% and Spend Index by 2.5%, with a year-over-year spending drop of 8.6%, the smallest since Q1 2023. Industry capacity tightened due to rising diesel prices, shrinking fleets, and a modest recovery in freight rates.

April Class 8 data from ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported the lowest order total since May 2020, with 7,600 units ordered, a 52% decline year over year. Economic uncertainties and tariff impacts contributed to the weak order tally, with cancellations increasing due to ongoing market uncertainty.

The Logistics Managers’ Index for April indicated a strained freight market, with transportation pricing surging ahead of capacity growth. Transportation prices increased to 62.3 points, while capacity saw a slower expansion. Rising inventory levels and warehousing prices influenced the market, with future numbers suggesting dynamics similar to previous freight recessions.

Outbound tender volumes dropped by 3.57% in the first week of May, while outbound tender rejection rates increased to 5.39%. Despite lower volumes, transportation capacity availability remains favorable compared to last year. Segment comparisons showed dry van underperforming compared to the reefer segment, with reefer rejection rates and spot market rates showing strength.

Sources discuss the impact of illegal foreign drivers on the U.S. trucking industry, deeper issues with CDL qualifications, intermodal growth in Mexico reported by Schneider, tariff concerns driving job gains in trucking and warehousing, and the Labor Department’s decision not to enforce the Biden-era independent contractor rule.



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