From Yahoo Finance: 2025-05-22 15:43:00

Freight broker RXO reports truckload spot rates are on an “inflationary” trajectory, but trade policy is a wildcard. Data shows TL spot rates up 9.1% y/y in Q1, with all-in spot rate index also increasing. Q1 classified as a shippers’ market with a fragile capacity situation.

Market tightening in Q4 carried into January, then unwound in Feb/March due to tariff rhetoric. RXO notes a step down in y/y spot rate increases but believes TL market isn’t weakening. Spot rates expected to continue increasing in Q2 despite imports and industrial production receding.

RXO anticipates a more meaningful rate flip later in the year due to trade policy changes and carrier exits. Rate environment is inflationary, but extreme conditions seen in 2020 and 2021 are not expected. Scenario of trade tensions calming could lead to a tighter market late in 2025.

Read more: Truckload spot rates to continue upward trend, RXO says