US-China trade talks progress boosts market sentiment and lowers 2025 recession odds.
From Nasdaq: 2025-05-13 09:00:00
US-China Trade Meeting Sparks Wall Street Optimism
Stocks surged on news of progress in US-China trade talks, leading to a joint statement from both sides. Companies like Tesla, Alibaba, and Amazon rallied. The long-term trend appears positive, with bulls in control. This development marks a significant shift in market sentiment.
Betting Markets Suggest that 2025 Recession Odds Plunge
Polymarket accurately predicted Donald Trump’s re-election and now shows a significant drop in recession odds for 2025. The chances of a recession have fallen from 66% to 39% in just two weeks. This indicates a more optimistic outlook for the economy moving forward.
S&P 500, Nasdaq Retake 200-day Moving Average
Following news of progress in US-China trade talks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both crossed back over their 200-day moving averages. This is a positive sign for the long-term trend in the markets. Monday’s price action was particularly strong, reminiscent of past market-moving events.
What Does the VIX Reversion-to-the-Mean Tell Us?
The VIX, which measures market volatility, has historically signaled moments of extreme fear and market capitulation. The recent tariff developments have triggered a significant VIX cycle, raising questions about future market behavior. This historical pattern may offer insights into potential market movements in 2025.
The Trade-Deal Domino Effect
With the US securing preliminary trade deals with the UK and China, a domino effect in trade negotiations is expected. This could provide President Trump and the Fed Chair with more leverage in future deals and monetary policy decisions. The recent developments bode well for market stability and economic growth.
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Read more at Nasdaq: US-China Talks Spark Optimism; Betting Markets See Recession Odds Drop