Key economic data releases expected from US, China, UK, Japan, and Australia
From Investing.com: 2025-05-09 06:36:00
US-CHINA TRADE TALKS (SAT): US and China to hold high-level trade talks in Geneva, first formal negotiations since April. US Treasury Secretary and USTR to lead talks, China represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng. Talks seen as potential turning point, but outcome likely limited to initial engagement. Trump hints at possible tariff reduction, providing near-term relief for risk assets. Both sides remain far apart on key issues, with direct engagement between Presidents Trump and Xi likely later in the year. Markets await further developments post-meeting.
CHINA CPI (SAT): China’s CPI expected at -0.1% Y/Y, PPI at -2.8% Y/Y. Data likely to confirm persistent deflationary pressures. Recent US tariffs may exacerbate deflation, impacting exporters. Caixin PMI reports show increase in input costs, decrease in selling prices. Ongoing China-US tariff standoff expected to impact economy in second and third quarters. Policymakers urged to prepare for tariff effects.
BOJ SUMMARY OF OPINIONS (TUE): BoJ maintains short-term interest rate at 0.50%, decision unanimous. BoJ to continue raising policy rate if economy and prices align with forecast. Dovish-leaning language notes economic growth likely to moderate, inflation consistent with 2% target delayed. Uncertainty remains high, with risks skewed to downside. GDP and CPI projections lowered for fiscal 2025 and 2026. BoJ Governor expects prolonged uncertainties to impact inflation target.
UK JOBS DATA (TUE): UK unemployment rate to rise to 4.5%, earnings (ex-bonus) for March to decline to 5.7%. Data quality issues plague release, may not reflect true labor market trends. Payrolled employee numbers on weakening trend. MPC may accelerate rate cuts if labor market weakens significantly. Markets await impact of National Insurance Contributions’ rise on labor market.
US CPI (TUE): US CPI expected to rise +0.3% M/M in April, core rate also expected to rise +0.3% M/M. Wells Fargo expects headline print of +0.2% M/M, annual rate to fall to 2.3% Y/Y. Core rate likely unchanged at 2.8% Y/Y. Consumer pushback and inventory building may keep price acceleration at bay until May.
RIKSBANK MINUTES (WED): Riksbank keeps rates steady at 2.25%, hints at possible rate cut in forecast horizon. Bank sees inflation as temporary, uncertainty remains high. Governor Theeden cautious on economic outlook, timing of inflation target attainment uncertain. SEB sees rate reduction in June, Oxford Economics prefers rate cut in August or September. Bank’s view on inflation remains elevated but temporary.
BANXICO POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): Central Bank cut rates by 50bps to 9.00% in March, maintained guidance for future adjustments. Banxico anticipates inflationary environment to allow rate-cutting cycle to continue. Governor expects additional rate cuts if inflation remains stable. Deputy Governor warns of inflation risk balance still skewed to upside. Private sector analysts see benchmark interest rate closing at 8.00% in 2025.
AUSTRALIA JOBS DATA (THU): Australia expected to add +25k jobs in April, unemployment rate and participation rate forecast to hold steady. Recent moderation in job growth attributed to slowing population growth. Employment-to-population ratio remains stable. Unemployment may signal early cyclical downtrend as cost-of-living pressures ease.
UK GDP (THU): UK monthly GDP growth in March expected to cool to 0.1% M/M. Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts flat reading, potential slowdown due to decline in industrial production. Trade war expected to hamper activity, GDP growth projections lowered for 2025 and 2026. Policy impact likely limited given previous trade agreement.
US RETAIL SALES (THU): US retail sales expected to rise +0.1% M/M in April. Retail Monitor data shows growth as consumers move up buying to avoid tariffs. Consumer fundamentals remain strong, supported by low unemployment and steady income growth. Consumers maintain ability to spend despite economic uncertainty.
JAPAN GDP (FRI): Japan’s Q1 GDP expected to decline by -0.1% Q/Q. Private consumption to post modest gain, supported by household spending and tourism. Limited front-loading activity ahead of tariff changes, rebound in imports erodes net trade contribution. Soft print reinforces view that BoJ is in no rush to tighten further.
NZ INFLATION FORECASTS (FRI): Market consensus for data yet to be published. Longer-term inflation expectations near 2%, despite recent tariff developments. RBNZ’s primary concern is impact on longer-term expectations. Inflation risks expected to remain contained despite recent headline moves. Market focus on future inflation in context of recent developments.
Read more at Investing.com: Week Ahead: Inflation, Jobs, Growth Figures from US, China, UK, Japan, Australia