Home Depot may see stock drop after Q1 earnings release, historical data suggests trends down.

From Nasdaq: 2025-05-19 05:07:00

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is set to release its Q1 earnings on May 20, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $3.59 per share on $39.16 billion revenue. The company’s stock has historically dropped 55% of the time after earnings, with a median one-day decline of 2.5% and a maximum drop of 9%.

Home Depot faces economic challenges due to its global sourcing and North America sales focus. Its market capitalization is $370 billion, with $160 billion revenue, $22 billion operating profit, and $15 billion net income in the last twelve months. Key products at risk include lumber, steel, aluminum, plumbing fixtures, and tools.

For traders, historical patterns can provide insight into post-earnings stock movements. The Trefis High-Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, generating returns over 91% since inception. Home Depot’s historical post-earnings returns show a 45% chance of positive one-day returns, increasing to 67% over the last 3 years.

Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns can help formulate trading strategies. Home Depot’s correlation between 1D, 5D, and 21D returns can guide traders in making informed decisions. Peer performance can also influence stock reactions, so analyzing historical data on peer earnings can provide valuable insights for investors.



Read more at Nasdaq: Will Q1 Results Move Home Depot Stock Down?