From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-19 15:10:00

An escalation of Iran-Israel hostilities could increase Brent oil prices by 15-20% if 1.1 million bpd of Iranian oil exports are disrupted, says Citibank. Brent prices could reach $75-$78/bbl. Brent crude futures were up to $78.18 on Thursday. JP Morgan warns oil prices could surge to $120-$130/barrel in extreme cases.

Fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East due to Iran-Israel conflict are pushing crude prices higher. Iran is OPEC’s third-largest producer, extracting 3.3 million bpd. Citi predicts a 3 million bpd disruption could raise prices to $90/bbl. Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a sharp price spike.

Citi believes Iranian oil export disruptions may have a smaller impact than expected due to falling exports and reduced Chinese purchases. Increased global production could offset disruption impacts. OPEC’s increased supply could mitigate the impact of Iranian export disruptions.

Goldman Sachs estimates a $10 geopolitical risk premium with Brent prices at $76-77/bbl. Barclays predicts crude prices could rise to $85/bbl if Iranian exports are halved, potentially surpassing $100 in a worst-case scenario of wider conflict.



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