Export Curbs to Hit $8B in Q2 Sales: Is NVDA Overexposed to Trade War?

From Nasdaq: 2025-06-11 08:18:00

NVIDIA Corporation is projected to lose $8 billion in revenue in Q2 2026 due to U.S. export rules blocking chip shipments to China. The company faces slower growth with a projected 2% revenue increase, the lowest in nine quarters. NVIDIA’s dependency on the Chinese market is evident with $4.5 billion in inventory write-downs.

The export controls pose a risk of losing a major market for AI chips, potentially slowing NVIDIA’s growth. CEO Jensen Huang warns of China’s local chipmakers catching up faster. To counter losses, NVIDIA is focusing on AI deals in other regions, but none can fully replace China’s market size and growth speed.

NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel face challenges from U.S. export curbs on AI chips to China. AMD loses out on $800 million due to restrictions on its GPUs, while Intel’s Gaudi 3 chips face volume target struggles. China’s absence could limit growth opportunities for both companies in the AI accelerator market.

NVIDIA’s stock has risen 7.1% in 2026, slightly below the semiconductor industry’s 6% growth. With a forward P/E ratio of 30.48, NVDA is priced below the industry average. Estimates suggest a 42% and 31% increase in earnings for fiscal 2026 and 2027, respectively, showing positive growth potential despite challenges.



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