Israel-Iran conflict could lead to recession if global oil supply disrupted.

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-23 19:10:00

The Israel-Iran conflict raises concerns over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs warns of recession risks if global oil supply is disrupted. Higher oil prices could impact global economic growth and inflation. US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have markets worried about Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil-shipping chokepoint. The risk of further military escalation keeps recession probability at 30%, according to Goldman Sachs. In a worst-case scenario, oil volumes through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 50% for one month, then remain down 10% for another 11 months. JPMorgan sees a 21% chance of oil prices rising to $120-$130 a barrel due to major energy production disruption in the Persian Gulf. Morgan Stanley’s Commodities Strategist believes a 75% spike in oil prices would only occur from prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.



Read more at Yahoo Finance: Here’s how Wall Street sees the Israel-Iran conflict affecting recession odds