From Investing.com: 2025-06-13 08:44:00

• Israel has launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, leading to retaliation with drones. The US may be targeted due to accusations of complicity. Energy markets face supply disruption risks in key trade routes. The IAEA has censured Iran, increasing diplomatic isolation. Iran faces a choice between nuclear breakout and negotiation, with potential implications for US military involvement. Further escalation is likely, impacting oil prices and central bank policies.
• Oil prices rallied 13% after the strikes, with potential for further disruptions to push prices past $80/bbl. OPEC’s spare capacity could mitigate supply issues. A shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead prices to $120/bbl. The European gas market may also be affected, with LNG trade potentially disrupted. Impact on global oil and gas trade could lead to a deficit and higher prices.
• Oil spikes could impact US inflation and delay rate cuts. Central banks must reconsider response to supply shocks. Higher prices could lead to stagflation in the Eurozone. It may be challenging for the ECB to respond effectively to energy price volatility. The dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency is in question, impacted by domestic factors.
• Market rates fluctuated in response to escalating tensions, with concerns over monetary policy implications. Credit markets have tightened despite external concerns, but uncertainty remains for corporate balance sheets. Spread widening may occur in the short term, with potential for a return to tightening trends if tensions de-escalate.

Read more at Investing.com: Middle East Conflict: What It Means for Macro and Markets