From Barchart: 2025-06-04 07:59:00

Global gross domestic product growth for 2025 was recently downgraded to 2.9% from 3.1%, as the OECD warns that sweeping tariffs threaten to slow economic activity. With trade barriers rising and policy uncertainty elevated, investors must navigate headwinds that could keep growth lethargic.

The Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development now sees global GDP expanding 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026—down from prior estimates of 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Escalating tariffs and geopolitical friction pose significant risks, particularly as delays in reaching trade agreements may fuel inflation and dampen consumer confidence.

Higher duties on goods—from steel to technology—raise input costs for manufacturers and prompt firms to delay capital spending. Unpredictable shifts in trade policy encourage businesses to postpone hiring and investment until clarity returns. Households tend to rein in discretionary spending when facing higher prices, especially for imports.

While tariffs can stoke inflation, commodity prices have softened recently—offering a partial offset. Benchmark oil prices and key agricultural inputs have retreated roughly 8% over the past quarter. Lower energy and farm‐gate costs help ease input cost pressures for manufacturers, limiting how much consumer prices ultimately rise.

Staying ahead of policy shifts and growth figures is crucial. The Economics Calendar API provides a live feed of upcoming releases—GDP revisions, trade balances, PMI prints—that influence market sentiment. Portfolio managers can adjust risk exposure before major announcements. Traders can set alerts on surprise upside or downside in inflation data that might force central banks to shift rates.

Tech manufacturers reliant on semiconductor imports may see margins squeezed. Industrial firms with strong pricing power or localized production may fare better. Softening commodity prices are a net positive for manufacturers, but prolonged tariff cycles could keep energy firms volatile. Economies heavily dependent on exports could underperform if tariffs persist.

Allocate a portion of equity portfolios to defensive sectors and value‑oriented staples. Leverage the Economics Calendar API to receive real‑time notifications on key releases. Consider inflation‑protected securities or short‑duration bond funds to mitigate rising rates. Monitor the Commodities API for shifts in oil, metals, and agricultural prices.

Tariffs are placing a chokehold on global growth, but softer commodity prices and potential negotiation breakthroughs could limit damage. Investors who combine real‑time data with a defensive, diversified approach will be best positioned to weather choppy markets.



Read more at Barchart:: Tariffs Impact on Global Growth Outlook