From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-08 13:00:00

Investors are optimistic about continued US growth as the S&P 500 Cyclical/Defensive Ratio hits an all-time high, indicating a 19% premium for cyclical stocks over defensive ones. Despite concerns from some Wall Street strategists, the odds of a recession have dropped from 66% to 28% following trade negotiations and a tariff pause. The Leuthold Group believes a 28% chance of recession is still too high based on market pricing trends, historically seen ahead of past economic downturns. Defensive stocks have been losing their valuation premium, signaling a potential comeback if recessionary fears resurface. As long as cyclical stocks maintain their premium, the market remains unconcerned about an impending recession.



Read more at Yahoo Finance: The stock market isn’t pricing in any sort of economic downturn, investment firm says