From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-05 11:23:00

The U.S. truckload market has seen dramatic shifts post-COVID, with excess capacity leading to carrier exits. RXO reports higher operating costs making profitability challenging, particularly for smaller carriers. Despite tariff disruptions, spot rates have been rising, stabilizing the market. By mid-2025, the market reached a fragile equilibrium with improving rate trends.

Regional disparities have emerged, with the Southeast facing higher tender rejection rates than the West Coast. Intermodal transportation shifts have impacted long-haul freight demand, with rail capturing a significant share. By mid-2025, major freight centers like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas showed tight capacity conditions above the national average.

The market trajectory for truckload rates is deemed inflationary by RXO, with potential volatility ahead due to trade policy uncertainties. More carrier exits and high operating costs are expected to push rates higher in the future. Transportation prices are forecasted to rise significantly in the coming year, with a potential transportation recovery in 2026.

The U.S. truckload market has transitioned from extreme oversupply to a more balanced state through carrier exits, restoring equilibrium. Despite external shocks, the market has become more responsive to demand changes, showing signs of increased volatility. The reduction in truckload capacity has given carriers pricing power, signaling a path to stability.

Read more: Truckload’s path to equilibrium