From Financial Modeling Prep: 2025-06-11 16:40:00

UBS lowered Vail Resorts’ price target to $169 from $185, citing weak pass sales growth and rising costs. Pass unit growth expected to be negative for 2025–2026 ski season, with recent price hike resulting in only 2–3% net pricing increase. Same-store visitation down 2–3% despite good snow conditions, leading to slowing EBITDA growth.

UBS predicts flattish visitation and low-single-digit price increases in 2026, with 3% cost growth. 2026 EBITDA now expected to be flat, down from +5% growth estimate. Risks include labor costs and customer acquisition costs. Vail may increase marketing spend to attract more skiers, potentially impacting margins.

UBS highlights structural labor cost pressures and rising customer acquisition costs as medium-term risks for Vail Resorts. Company acknowledges suboptimal marketing efforts affecting results, suggesting potential increase in marketing spend to regain momentum. EBITDA projected to be flat in 2026, with downside risk if marketing spend increases.



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