From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-21 13:30:00

Peter Berezin of BCA Research maintains a bearish outlook, predicting a 60% chance of recession and the S&P 500 dropping to 4,500. Economic concerns include trade uncertainty, rising delinquencies, and a weakening labor market. Despite a tariff pause, Berezin remains pessimistic about the market’s future.

Berezin expects an economic slowdown this year, with the S&P 500 potentially trading down to 4,500. He notes that signs of weakness were present before the trade war fallout. Berezin’s concerns include trade uncertainty, a growing deficit, and a weakening consumer market.

Consumer delinquency rates are rising, with credit card delinquencies hitting 3.05% in the first quarter of 2025, the highest level since 2011. As student loan collections restart, credit scores are taking a hit. Housing market challenges, declining construction, and a 15% effective tariff rate add to economic pressures.

Berezin sees little optimism for the economy or stock market, with concerns about Trump’s tariff policies and potential price increases for consumers. A tariff rate lower than 10% would be less disruptive, but Berezin doubts Trump will lower rates. He anticipates further economic challenges and potential industry-specific tariff increases.



Read more at Yahoo Finance: Why a top market strategist says his base case is still a 25% stock drop and a recession in 2025