Align Technology (ALGN) down 36.47%, Warns of Challenges

by MarketNewsData

Align Technology (ALGN) shares plunged 36.47% intraday to $129.33 on July 31, 2025, after the company missed Q2 revenue and EPS estimates and issued below-street guidance for Q3.

Price & Volume Summary

  • Intraday Price: $129.33 (▼36.47%, −$74.24)
  • Today’s Low: $128.00 (tests 52-week trough)
  • Volume Spike: 10,600,028 shares vs. average 928,962

Technical Outlook

  • Oversold Bounce Risk:
  • RSI (14) ~20 – extreme oversold, high‐probability for a short-term rebound.
  • Key Support:
  • $128.00 – today’s low and 52-week low.
  • Next buffer around $120.00 (psychological).
  • Resistance Hurdles:
  • $158.00 (23.6% Fib retracement & prior support zone).
  • $179.00 (38.2% Fib), then $195.00 (50% Fib).

Fundamental Headwinds

  • Q2 Miss & Weak Q3 Guide:
  • Revenue and EPS fell short; management signaled below-street revenue for Q3.
  • Aligner Case-Start Slowdown:
  • Product‐mix shift to lower-priced offerings and patient hesitancy on elective dental spend.
  • Restructuring Charges:
  • $150–170 M of charges announced to reduce workforce, alleviating future cost but pressuring near-term margins.

Actionable Takeaway

  • Short-Term:
  • Look for a snap-back toward $158–$179 on relief buying, but expect heavy resistance.
  • Long-Term:
  • Bullish thesis (digital dentistry growth, imaging segment strength) remains valid only if volume confirms a hold above $158.
  • Risk Management:
  • Protect positions if price breaks and holds below $128; re-evaluate if it reclaims $158 with sustained volume.

Bottom Line: This capitulation opens a tactical entry for patient traders eyeing a bounce, but long-term conviction requires reclaiming key retracement levels on strong follow-through.

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