Sugar prices closed lower on Friday, with NY world sugar #11 down -1.69% and London ICE white sugar #5 down -1.92%. The decline was due to speculation that India may increase sugar exports. India’s monsoon rains are 6% above normal, potentially leading to a bumper sugar crop. Brazil’s sugar mills are diverting more cane crush to sugar production, adding 3.2 MMT of sugar to the market. India is projected to increase sugar production by 19% y/y to 35 MMT in 2025/26, after a 17% decline last season. Global sugar surplus is expected, with a 7.5 MMT surplus projected for the 2025/26 season. China’s sugar imports surged by 1,435% in June, and reduced sugar production in Brazil may support prices. Thailand’s sugar production rose by 14% y/y to 10.00 MMT in 2024/25. The International Sugar Organization forecasted a 9-year high global sugar deficit of -5.47 MMT for 2024/25. The USDA predicted a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, with increased consumption and ending stocks. Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to see production increases in the upcoming season.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Ample Global Supplies Undercut Sugar Prices