Coinbase Surges to 52-Week High Amid Bitcoin Rally
COIN up 123% in 3 months; Bernstein sees stock as ‘Amazon of crypto’ with $510 target
📈 Stock Performance
- 52-Week High (Intraday): $398.50
- Closing Price (July 15): $394.02
- 3-Month Gain: +123.13%
Coinbase has rallied sharply in recent months, driven by strong crypto market momentum, institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs, and growing optimism around the company’s evolving business model.
🐂 Bull Case for COIN
- Bitcoin Rally Boosting Core Revenue
Bitcoin’s climb past $120K in 2025 has reignited trading activity across platforms, directly benefiting Coinbase’s largest revenue stream: transaction fees. - ETF-Driven Institutional Adoption
Coinbase serves as the custodian for 8 of the 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s IBIT. This validates its infrastructure and deepens its ties with traditional finance. - Diversifying Beyond Trading
The company is increasingly generating revenue from:- Stablecoin (USDC) interest
- Staking services
- Layer 2 network (Base)
- Custody and subscription services
These sources are more stable and reduce reliance on volatile retail trading.
- Favorable Legal & Regulatory Trends
Coinbase saw partial dismissals in its SEC case, and legislation like the GENIUS Act and the upcoming CLARITY Act could pave the way for regulatory clarity. - Bernstein Upgrade to $510
On June 25, 2025, Bernstein hiked its price target to $510, calling Coinbase the “most misunderstood business in crypto.” Analysts highlighted its infrastructure moat and projected earnings to be more than 2x Street estimates for 2025–26.
🐻 Bear Case for COIN
- Regulatory Risk Still Lingers
The SEC case is not fully resolved, and broader U.S. crypto regulations remain in flux. A negative ruling or delay could derail momentum. - Rich Valuation
COIN currently trades at high forward multiples (P/E near 73x based on 2025 EPS estimates), implying high expectations already priced in. - Crypto Market Volatility
A downturn in Bitcoin or altcoins could slash Coinbase’s trading volumes, leading to weaker earnings. - Growing Competition
Rivals like Robinhood (with commission-free crypto trading), Binance, and international players continue to chip away at market share, especially among retail users. - Security Concerns
A $400 million data breach reported in May 2025 raised concerns about the safety of customer data and platform reliability.
📊 Bernstein’s Bullish Thesis Summary
| Metric | Bernstein Forecast |
|---|---|
| New Price Target | $510 (from $310) |
| EPS Projections | 2025–26 EPS 2x above consensus |
| Valuation Approach | Based on 25× 2027E EPS (~$20.38) |
| Analyst Comment | “Coinbase is the Amazon of crypto financial services” |
Bernstein sees Coinbase as a unique, end-to-end platform that will benefit from the maturing crypto ecosystem, regulatory normalization, and the institutionalization of digital assets.
🔚 Conclusion
Coinbase’s breakout to a new high reflects more than just crypto optimism—it’s about institutional adoption, diversification of revenue, and improving regulatory visibility. Still, its valuation and unresolved legal battles leave room for caution.
Currently trading near $394.02, COIN remains a high-beta play on crypto’s future—and Wall Street is paying attention.