Seagate stock could drop 60%, but has potential for growth with technology advancements

From MarketWatch: 2025-07-01 23:27:00

Seagate stock has the potential to drop 60% or more in the coming months, based on historical trends. Despite a strong 65% year-to-date return in 2025, Seagate is vulnerable to downturns due to past losses of 35% in 2020 and 58% in 2022. Investors should consider the High-Quality portfolio for growth with reduced volatility.

Seagate’s technological advancements, such as the Mozaic 3+ platform and plans for 40TB+ capacity drives, position it for long-term growth. However, execution risks exist if demand doesn’t meet projections. Seagate projects Q4 adjusted EPS between $2.20 and $2.60, with consensus forecasting solid revenue growth in FY 2025 and 2026.

During past downturns, Seagate stock fared worse than the S&P 500, experiencing significant declines, such as 58.2% in the 2022 inflation shock. While the stock fully recovered in subsequent years, the potential for sharp corrections remains. Valuation metrics show Seagate trading at a premium, raising concerns about a potential drop in value.



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