President Trump’s threat of penalties on India for importing Russian energy has added to concerns about secondary tariffs. Oil prices rose as Russia faces a deadline for a peace deal with Ukraine. US crude inventories increased by 7.7m barrels, impacting the market negatively. Investment funds reduced their net long in TTF by 32.8TWh.

Comex copper prices dropped nearly 19% after the US announced a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products. The market had been trading at a premium over LME prices. There is a risk of future tariffs on refined copper. The collapse of the Comex-LME arb is expected as refined copper imports to the US decrease.

Indian sugar production decreased by 18% due to rising diversion to ethanol production. India achieved a 20% ethanol blend with petrol in 2025. Gross sugar production projections for 2025/26 remain at 35mt. Favorable weather and increased cane acreage contribute to stable production forecasts.

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