Sugar prices fell sharply, with London sugar hitting a 1-week low. Expectations of a global sugar surplus drove the decline, with projections of a 7.5 MMT surplus for 2025/26. The USDA forecasted a record sugar production increase and rising ending stocks for the same period.

Despite initial gains, NY and London sugar prices dropped on concerns of tightening global supplies. Pakistan and the Philippines plan to import substantial quantities of sugar. India’s projected increase in sugar production and favorable monsoon forecasts are bearish signs for prices.

Global sugar output is expected to rise, with Brazil, India, and Thailand forecasted to increase production. India’s decision to export 1 MMT of sugar this season may impact prices. Reduced sugar production in Brazil offers some support to sugar prices.

The International Sugar Organization predicts a significant global sugar deficit for 2024/25, tightening the market after a surplus in the previous year. The USDA projects record sugar production and consumption for 2025/26 but expects increased ending stocks. Rich Asplund has no positions in mentioned securities.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Expectations For a Global Sugar Surplus Continue to Weigh on Prices