Surplus sugar supply leads to plummeting prices in global market

Sugar prices continue to fall, with NY Oct sugar reaching a new low and London sugar at a 3-3/4 year low due to robust supplies and weak demand. ICE Futures US reported the smallest amount of NY sugar delivered in 11 years. Expectations of a global sugar surplus have led to plummeting prices.

Commodities trader Czarnikow projects a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years. The USDA predicts a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for 2025/26 with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y. India’s sugar production is expected to rise by 19% y/y to 35 MMT.

Brazil’s sugar production is forecasted to increase by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT, while India’s production is projected to rise by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT. Thailand’s sugar production is also expected to climb by 2% y/y to 10.3 MMT. India has eased restrictions on sugar exports but projects a production decrease of 17.5% y/y.

Thailand’s sugar production rose by 14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Brazil’s sugar output through mid-June is down by 14.6% y/y. The ISO raised its global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high at -5.47 MMT, indicating a tightening market. The USDA projects a record global sugar production and consumption for 2025/26.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Robust Supplies Amid Tepid Demand Punish Sugar Prices