Tesla reports 13% decline in Q2 deliveries, shares rise 5%

From Morningstar: 2025-07-03 04:37:00

Tesla reported a 13% decline in second-quarter deliveries, totaling 384,122 vehicles. Despite this, Tesla shares rose 5% in premarket trading. Morningstar predicts a continued decline in deliveries for 2025, citing market saturation as a key factor. They maintain a fair value estimate of $250 for Tesla, viewing the stock as overvalued.

Morningstar emphasizes the importance of Tesla launching a new lower-cost vehicle to drive meaningful deliveries growth. The company’s current product lineup is deemed to have reached market saturation. Tesla’s stock price reflects optimism for the robotaxi business and a successful product launch next year, aligning with management’s guidance.

Tesla’s stock is viewed as overvalued, trading in 2-star territory. Morningstar values the robotaxi business higher than new vehicle launches and anticipates an update on robotaxi testing during Tesla’s earnings release on July 23. Safety precautions during testing suggest a full robotaxi launch may not happen until 2028, aligning with Tesla’s long-term vision.

Morningstar does not own shares in any securities mentioned in the article. Their editorial policies can be found on the Morningstar website. Tesla’s upcoming earnings report on July 23 is eagerly awaited for updates on robotaxi testing and the potential launch of a new affordable vehicle this year.



Read more at Morningstar: Second-Quarter Deliveries Decline Confirms Our View for Lower 2025 Deliveries