Sugar prices rose for the second consecutive day, with NY sugar hitting a 1-week high. Crude oil strength boosted sugar, leading to a potential shift in cane crushing towards ethanol production, reducing sugar supplies. China’s June sugar imports surged 1,435%, and Trump’s announcement could raise US sugar consumption by 4.4%.

India may allow sugar mills to export sugar next season due to abundant monsoon rains. Brazil’s dry weather prompted more sugar production, adding 3.2 MMT to the market. India projects a 19% y/y increase in sugar production for 2025/26, following a 17% y/y decline in 2024/25.

Global sugar prices fell due to expectations of a surplus in the 2025/26 season. Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT sugar surplus, while the USDA forecasted a 4.7% y/y increase in global sugar production. Reduced sugar production in Brazil and Thailand also impacted prices.

The International Sugar Organization reported a 9-year high global sugar deficit in 2024/25, with a tightening market post-2023/24 surplus. The USDA projected a record 189.318 MMT global sugar production for 2025/26, with increased consumption and ending stocks. Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to see production increases.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Soaring Crude Oil Prices Support Gains in Sugar