Stock indexes are mixed today, with the S&P 500 up +0.33%, Dow Jones down -0.25%, and Nasdaq up +0.64%. Futures are also up, driven by favorable core CPI and trade news. Treasury Secretary confirms US-China trade talks are in a “very good place.” September E-mini S&P and Nasdaq futures are up.

The CPI report today showed a slightly weaker core CPI increase of +0.2% m/m due to lower car prices. However, there are signs of upside pressure from tariffs. US-China trade talks are positive, with Nvidia getting a license for chip sales to Chinese firms. Trump announced increased tariffs on EU, Mexico, and Canada.

July Empire manufacturing index at 5.5 beat expectations. Bitcoin prices down nearly -2% today due to long liquidation pressure. US House to hold hearing on crypto regulation. Market focus this week on tariffs, trade deals, and economic reports. Earnings season started with big bank results. Q2 S&P 500 earnings expected to rise +2.8%.

Federal funds futures show a 3% chance of a rate cut at July FOMC meeting. Overseas markets mixed. Interest rates up slightly, supported by weaker core CPI report. Trump administration’s stance on Fed Chair Powell raises concerns. European government bond yields lower. ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps.

US stock movers include chip stocks rising on trade news, while BlackRock is down after reporting below-expectation asset inflows. JPMorgan Chase down -0.4% on expense guidance raise. Copper miners lower on reduced demand expectations. Earnings reports today include Blackrock, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and State Street.

Swaps show a 2% chance of ECB rate cut. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks mixed. Earnings reports today from Albertsons, Blackrock, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others. Market outlook remains focused on trade news, economic data, and earnings results.

Read more at Nasdaq: Stocks See Support from Favorable CPI and Positive Bessent Trade Remarks