Sugar prices rose due to a +2% rally in crude oil prices, prompting speculation of new Russian oil export sanctions. NY sugar hit a 2-week high, London sugar a 1.5-month high amid concerns of global supply tightening, with Pakistan importing 500,000 MT and the Philippines importing 424,000 MT.

Sugar prices fell in the past three months on expectations of a global surplus, hitting contract lows. Commodities trader Czarnikow projected a record 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26, while USDA forecasted a 4.7% y/y increase in global sugar production to 189.318 MMT, with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT.

India’s projected 19% y/y sugar production increase to 35 MMT may lead to a bumper crop due to abundant rainfall, driving down prices. The USDA predicted a 2.3% y/y rise in Brazil’s sugar production to 44.7 MMT, and Thailand’s production to increase +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

As India allows sugar exports, its 2024/25 production is expected to drop by -17.5% y/y to 26.2 MMT. However, Thailand reported a +14% y/y increase in sugar production to 10.00 MMT for 2024/25, impacting global prices negatively.

Unica reported a -14.6% y/y decrease in Brazil’s sugar output, while ISO raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -5.47 MMT, tightening the market after the 2023/24 surplus. The USDA projected a record 189.318 MMT global sugar production for 2025/26.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Rally on Strength in Crude Oil Prices