October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) down -1.33%, August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) down -1.85% due to stronger dollar. Long liquidation in sugar futures sparked by the dollar index (DXY00) rallying to a 2-week high. Concerns of global sugar supply tightening as Pakistan and the Philippines plan sugar imports.

Global sugar prices have fallen over the last three months due to expected surplus. Commodities trader Czarnikow projects a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26, the largest in 8 years. USDA forecasts a record 189.318 MMT global sugar production, with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.

India’s predicted increase in sugar production by 19% y/y to 35 MMT could lead to a surplus. Favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage in India, Brazil, and Thailand contribute to negative sugar price outlook. India’s sugar exports could total 800,000 MT, below earlier projections of 1 MMT.

Thailand reports a +14% y/y rise in 2024/25 sugar production, contributing to bearish sugar price outlook. Reduced sugar production in Brazil offers some support to sugar prices. Brazil’s 2024/25 sugar production fell by -3.4% y/y due to drought and excessive heat, affecting the global market.

The International Sugar Organization raises its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -5.47 MMT, indicating a tightening market. USDA projects a record 189.318 MMT global sugar production for 2025/26. Human sugar consumption is forecasted to increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks climbing +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Retreat as the Dollar Strengthens