Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025, slightly below estimate, but stock price rose

📅 Announced: July 2, 2025
💰 Stock Price ▲ +14.67 (+4.88%)

🔹 Headline Numbers

• Deliveries: 384,122 vehicles
  ▸ Down ~13.5% YoY (vs 443,956 in Q2 2024)
  ▸ Slightly below consensus estimate of ~387,000
  ▸ Still better than feared, considering recent headwinds
• Production: 410,244 vehicles
  ▸ Surpassed deliveries by ~26K units
  ▸ Suggests inventory buildup as demand lags production
• Energy Storage Deployed: 9.6 GWh
  ▸ Stable YoY
  ▸ Highlights strength in Tesla’s energy segment beyond EVs

🔹 Market Reaction & Analyst Take

• Stock Rallied ~4.9% intraday
  ▸ Relief rally due to narrower-than-feared miss
  ▸ Investors had braced for a deeper decline
• Wedbush Commentary
  ▸ Notes signs of demand stabilization in China
  ▸ Positive outlook heading into H2 2025
• Investor Sentiment
  ▸ Reaction driven by lowered expectations
  ▸ Focus shifting to Q2 earnings and margin recovery

🔹 Demand Challenges & Headwinds

• Consumer Sentiment Weighed by Musk-Linked Controversies
  ▸ Boycott movements and political backlash impacting brand perception
  ▸ Particularly evident in U.S. market
• Intensifying EV Competition
  ▸ Rivals in China (BYD, Nio), U.S. (Rivian, Lucid), and Europe gaining share
  ▸ Price cuts have eroded Tesla’s margins in prior quarters

🔹 Innovation Highlight

• Robotaxi Milestone:
  ▸ Completed first fully autonomous delivery (Model Y) in June
  ▸ Signals ongoing push into FSD and robotaxi segment
  ▸ Key to Tesla’s long-term narrative and valuation

🔹 Looking Ahead

• Q2 Earnings Report:
  📆 Scheduled for July 23, 2025 (after market close)
• Key Focus Areas for Investors:
  ▸ Automotive margins amid pricing pressure
  ▸ Inventory trends and demand outlook
  ▸ Progress in FSD/Robotaxi monetization
  ▸ Energy segment growth