The Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance in Monterey, California, will feature up to $400 million worth of classic cars at auction this week. With an estimated 1,140 vehicles up for sale, the market is expected to see a decline in sales for the third consecutive year, dropping by 18% from its recent peak in 2022.
Traditionally, the high end of the market at Monterey auctions featured cars priced at $10 million or more. However, this year there is only one such car available, marking the fewest in over a decade. The average sale price has also decreased from $477,000 to $473,000 this year.
Classic car prices have been on a slow decline since the pandemic rally in 2021 and 2022. Collectibles prices overall are down 2.7% in the past 12 months, with classic car prices specifically down 0.2%. Factors contributing to this decline include global uncertainty, higher interest rates, and a shifting generational preference toward newer and fewer collectible cars.
The classic car market is experiencing a generational shift as baby boomers, who have historically driven the market, are aging out or downsizing. Millennials and Gen Zers are entering the market, preferring newer and more affordable collectible cars. This shift is expected to accelerate as wealth is transferred from older to younger generations.
Prices for classic cars over 50 years old have seen a decline of as much as 20% to 30% from their peaks. Falling prices have led to more private sales between buyers and sellers, as prominent sellers prefer to keep their discounted prices private. Auctions for newer supercars are on the rise, with millennials and Gen Zers showing a preference for more affordable and practical cars.
The market for modern supercars is booming, with sales of these cars expected to overtake sales of “Enzo-era” Ferraris at Monterey for the first time. However, some experts express concerns that the modern supercar segment may be over-inflated and speculative, akin to momentum trades in the stock market. The market is shifting toward newer, more practical cars that appeal to younger collectors.
Here are the top lots from Monterey Car Week, compiled by Hagerty:
1. 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider Competizione, estimated at more than $20 million
2. 1993 Ferrari F40 LM, estimated at $8.5 million to $9.5 million
3. (tied) 1973 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona Competizione, estimated at $8 million to $10 million
3. (tied) 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider, estimated at $8 million to $10 million
4. 1957 Ferrari 250 GT LWB California Spider Prototipo, estimated at $7.5 million to $9 million
5. 2020 Bugatti Divo, estimated at $7 million to $9 million
Read more at CNBC: Classic car auction sales expectations