Crude oil and gasoline prices are down today, with crude above Wednesday’s 2-month low. The dollar’s strength and potential easing of Russia-Ukraine hostilities are pressuring prices. President Trump is set to meet with Putin to discuss ending the war, potentially lifting sanctions on Russian energy exports, boosting global oil supplies.

President Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on Russian energy buyers unless a ceasefire is reached by Friday has caused crude prices to rise. JPMorgan Chase warns of the impact of triple-digit tariffs on Russian oil, potentially leading to a supply shock due to significant Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity.

OPEC+ endorsed a 547,000 bpd increase in crude production for September 1 to reverse a 2-year production cut. Output will gradually be restored by September 2026, with plans to monitor demand and adjust production levels. The International Energy Agency warns of a global crude oil surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global consumption.

The EU approved sanctions on Russian oil over its aggression in Ukraine, including restrictions on Russian banks and petroleum refined in other countries. A major Indian oil refinery part-owned by Russia’s Rosneft PJSC was blacklisted, along with over 400 Russian shadow fleet ships. This is likely to impact oil prices.

A decline in crude oil stored on tankers globally is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported a 15% weekly drop to 79.12 million bbl in the week ended August 1. The US EIA report showed crude oil inventories below the seasonal 5-year average, while US production fell slightly, and active oil rigs decreased to a 3.75-year low.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Prices Pressured by Possible End to the Russian-Ukraine War