Fabrinet (FN) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Preview: Analysts Bullish

Earnings Date: Monday, August 18, 2025 (After Market Close)
Conference Call: 5:00 PM ET

Analyst Expectations

EPS: Consensus at $2.64, within company guidance of $2.55–$2.70.
Revenue: Street expects around $880–885 million, within guidance of $860–900 million.
YoY Growth: Revenue up ~17–18% from $753M last year; EPS expected to rise from $2.41 a year ago.

Analyst Commentary & Ratings

Rosenblatt: PT raised to $290 (Buy).
Northland: Outperform, PT $375, citing Amazon and Ciena wins.
JPMorgan: Neutral, PT $318.
Needham: Buy, PT $280.
Barclays: Equal Weight, PT $234.
Consensus PT: ~$267.8, range $234–$375.

What Fabrinet Does

Fabrinet is a specialized contract manufacturer focused on precision optical, photonic, and high-complexity electronic products.

Core Capabilities

Optical packaging & photonics assembly: Manufactures optical transceivers, modules, and components for telecom/datacom networks.
Electro-mechanical manufacturing: Builds complex systems such as lasers, sensors, and high-end electronics.
End Markets Served:
- Optical communications (telecom & datacom)
- Cloud & AI data centers
- Automotive LiDAR
- Industrial lasers
- Medical devices

Why It’s Important for AI

AI Runs on Data: FN makes the optical modules that move massive data inside data centers.
Cloud Scaling: Hyperscalers like Amazon AWS, Microsoft, Google use FN’s optics to remove bandwidth bottlenecks.
High-Speed Networking: FN helps deliver 400G, 800G, and soon 1.6T optical modules critical for AI training clusters.
Power Efficiency: Optical interconnects reduce power use, crucial as AI drives electricity demand.
Automotive AI: FN manufactures LiDAR systems for autonomous vehicles, giving it exposure beyond data centers.

Bottom line: FN is the “plumber of the AI revolution”, providing the invisible but critical infrastructure that keeps AI data flowing efficiently.

Competitors

Direct: Sanmina (SANM) — closest peer in optical/networking EMS.
Indirect: Jabil (JBL), Flex (FLEX) — compete in networking/telecom but less optics-focused.
In-house: Customers like Ciena, Cisco, Amazon could insource production but rely on FN’s scale and expertise.
FN’s Edge: Precision optical manufacturing at scale, a high-barrier niche where it commands ~50% outsourced share.

Technical Overview

Current Price: ~$330.
Support: ~$315.
Resistance: ~$343–348.
Trend:
- Short-term: Slightly bearish (price just under 5/10-day MAs).
- Medium/Long-term: Bullish — stock well above 20/50/100/200-day averages.
- Golden Cross: 50-day MA above 200-day, confirming strength.
Momentum Indicators:
- RSI ~55–57 (neutral).
- MACD positive (bullish momentum).
Relative Strength: IBD rating ~96, showing market leadership.
Volatility: Options market implies ±12% move, in line with historic ~10–11%.

Key Themes & Strategic Developments

Contract Wins: Amazon and Ciena add scale in datacom/cloud.
Diversification: Expanding into LiDAR (autonomous vehicles) and medical devices.
Estimate Revisions: Analysts raised FY25 EPS to $10.18 and revenue to $3.39B.
Margins: Must be monitored — rising costs or supply chain issues could offset revenue growth.

What to Watch in the Report

EPS Beat/Miss: Key threshold is consensus $2.64 vs. top-end guidance $2.70.
Revenue Execution: Street expects high end of $860–900M guidance.
FY26 Guidance: Needs to top baseline Street view of $3.39B / $10.18 EPS.
Margins: Any erosion could dampen sentiment.

Bottom Line

Fabrinet is positioned as a critical enabler of AI and cloud infrastructure, supplying the optical components that allow hyperscale data centers to scale and AI models to train efficiently. It also has growth levers in automotive LiDAR and medical devices.

Analysts remain broadly bullish, with targets as high as $375, though some remain cautious. Technically, FN is in a long-term bullish trend with short-term resistance at $343–348 and strong support at $315.

With double-digit revenue growth, strong customer wins, and high expectations, FN’s Q4 print could drive significant volatility. A beat-and-raise scenario could push shares above resistance toward analyst highs, while weak guidance could drag it back toward support.