July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices rose at a faster clip annually compared to in June. According to Bloomberg data, headline CPI is expected to have increased 2.8% year over year in July, up from a 2.7% rise in June. Core prices are also projected to climb 0.3% month over month, marking the strongest gain in six months. Signs of tariff-driven cost pressures emerged in June, with apparel, footwear, furniture, and bedding prices increasing. The report is set to arrive amid ongoing trade developments that could further alter the US effective tariff rate.

The July CPI report comes as investors stay alert to President Trump’s tariffs affecting consumer costs. Annual inflation rate for July is expected to tick up to 3.0% from June’s 2.9%, driven by rising goods inflation offsetting easing services inflation. Markets are increasingly betting the central bank will lower interest rates at its September meeting due to concerns over the US labor market’s health and persistent inflation. Analysts anticipate investors will focus on updates to core goods prices in the report.

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