On Thursday, September Nymex natural gas closed up +0.46%, rebounding slightly from a 9-month low. The EIA’s weekly report showed a +56 bcf increase in nat gas inventory, slightly above the consensus of +54 bcf. Cooler US temps and higher US gas production continue to weigh on prices.

The EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production to 106.44 bcf/day, up from July’s estimate of 105.9 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs at a 2-year peak. Lower-48 state gas demand and dry gas production are up y/y, while LNG net flows to US export terminals stay steady.

US electricity output fell -1.9% y/y in the week ending August 9, but rose +2.6% y/y in the 52-week period ending the same date. Nat-gas inventories rose +56 bcf, exceeding the consensus and 5-year average. Inventories are down -2.4% y/y but are +6.6% above the 5-year average, signaling ample supply.

Baker Hughes reported a slight decline in active US nat-gas drilling rigs, dropping to 123 rigs from a recent high of 124. Over the past ten months, the number of gas rigs has increased from a 4-year low of 94 rigs. Nat-gas prices consolidate above the 9-month low, impacted by US gas production forecasts and cooler weather predictions.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Nat-Gas Prices Consolidate Above Wednesday’s 9-Month Low