S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Key Pivots and Seasonal Risk

Trend & Momentum

• SPY remains in a strong uptrend, trading near all-time highs.
• Golden Cross (50-day MA above 200-day MA) confirms long-term bullish bias.
• RSI ~66–68 — slightly elevated but not overbought.
• MACD positive but flattening — momentum slowing.

Key Price Pivots to Watch

Resistance / Upside Breakout Levels

• 647.00 – Recent high; break above with volume could target 650–655.

Support / Downside Watch Levels

• 632.37 – First Fibonacci support; losing this could trigger a sharper pullback.
• 623.32 – Stronger 38.2% retracement; first major correction target.
• 616.00 – 50% retracement & psychological level; medium-term pivot.
• 608.68 – 61.8% retracement; break here risks deeper correction.
• 599.63 – 76.4% retracement; last defense before April low.
• 585.00 – April swing low; full retracement.

Volume & Breadth

• Buying volume steady but not accelerating — cautious participation.
• Breadth narrowing — gains concentrated in tech/AI leaders.

Seasonality & Risk Factors

• August–September historically weak months for the S&P.
• Potential macro headwinds: sticky inflation, slower jobs data, Fed rate cut delays, trade policy risks.
• Institutional outlooks warn of a 5–10% pullback possible before year-end.

Scenarios

Bullish:

• Close above 647 with strong volume could extend toward 650–655.
• Positive earnings/macro surprises could sustain the rally.

Bearish:

• Close below 632 likely triggers test of 623, possibly 616.
• Breach of 608 could accelerate selling toward 600 or lower.

Trading Focus

• Bullish trades: Favor buying dips above 632–623 with stops under 616.
• Bearish trades: Favor shorts/hedges on failed breakout at 647 or breakdown below 632, targeting 623–616.

Bias:

• Short-term: Neutral to bullish while above 632.
• Medium-term: Cautious — seasonal weakness and narrowing breadth raise pullback odds.

This report was prepared with AI assistance and is not financial or trading advice.