The US imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, threatening Switzerland’s export-driven economy, especially luxury and tech sectors. Swiss stocks initially dropped but rebounded, with hope for a tariff deal. However, prolonged measures could hurt exporters and pressure the Swiss National Bank to act. Pharma and gold may face future duties.

Swiss stocks rebounded after the US tariff announcement, as the market expects a deal soon. Migros Bank notes that export-oriented sectors will bear the most pressure, while companies with US production may be less impacted. Volatility is expected in the coming weeks, with large firms better positioned than smaller export-reliant companies.

Consumer and tech stocks were initially hit hard by the tariffs, with Logitech and Swatch among the most affected. Logitech shares fell initially but have rebounded since. Swatch relies on North American sales, and Chinese demand is critical. The impact on Swiss exporters could be significant, with the potential for market share loss and weaker investment conditions.

Switzerland’s two key export sectors, gold and pharmaceuticals, face different tariff threats. While drug giants Novartis and Roche are exempt for now, heavier duties are being contemplated. Trump’s ultimatum to drugmakers could lead to substantial tariffs on pharma imports, impacting Switzerland. Gold tariffs were initially proposed but later ruled out by Trump.

J. Safra Sarasin and UBS do not expect immediate monetary policy changes from the Swiss National Bank due to positive inflation trends. A shift in rates or foreign exchange intervention is unlikely in the short term, but a sharper policy move may be considered if tariffs persist. Exemptions and future threats will determine the pressure on the Swiss economy and policymakers.

Read more at Morningstar: What’s Next for Swiss Stocks After Trump’s Tariff Broadside?