Medicare Advantage enrollment is projected to decrease for the first time in nearly 20 years, with CMS estimating 34 million enrollees in 2025. This reflects a decline from nearly 35 million in 2023. Despite this, the agency anticipates increased enrollment in 2026 and a stable market with an average of 10 plans per market.
The average monthly premium for Medicare Advantage plans is expected to decrease to $14 in 2026, down from $16.40 this year. However, initial data suggests higher pricing from major insurers such as UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health, Elevance, and Humana. Benefit reductions, including higher premiums and deductibles, are anticipated.
Insurers are focusing on HMO plans for 2026, with more limited provider networks and raised deductibles. However, some plans will still offer $0 premiums. Insurers are decommissioning less profitable plans and altering broker commission rates to boost enrollment in more profitable options. Brokers are encouraged to explore all options during open enrollment.
For the 2026 open enrollment period, 15% to 20% of plans have been decommissioned nationwide, with higher rates in certain markets like New York and Georgia. Brokers may have difficulty accessing certain plans due to commission challenges. Insurers aim to stabilize membership and costs by offering more restrictive plans, but market disruption creates uncertainty.
Open enrollment for Medicare Advantage plans begins on Wednesday, with enrollees receiving notices of plan changes. Seniors are advised to shop around and compare options to potentially save on out-of-pocket costs. Brokers emphasize the importance of actively reviewing available plans this year due to significant market changes. Congressional impasse may impact this year’s enrollment, but former CMS official assures minimal impact due to allocated funding for contractors. CMS confirms Medicare and Medicaid services will not be affected by a shutdown, but oversight for contractors, including Medicare call centers, may be lacking. Open enrollment period for Medicare is Oct. 15 – Dec. 7.
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