In June 2025, U.S. crude oil production hit a record high of 13.58 million barrels per day, expected to peak at 14.34 mb/d in March 2026. Global crude exports also hit a new high of 40.4 mmb/d in September, with projections for further increase in October driven by Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Freight costs for crude carriers have surged, with VLCCs hitting $70,000 per day for U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia routes. FGE predicts the Asian market may become oversupplied in late October/early November, leading to a shift in the marginal market for crude from East to West, ending the current freight rally.

Goldman Sachs predicts a potential oil glut of 1.9 million b/d in 2026, leading to oil prices sinking to the $50s per barrel next year. In contrast, Standard Chartered analysts foresee higher oil prices driven by robust demand and economic stimulus measures amid expectations of weaker global demand in the final quarter of the year.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Global Crude Exports Set To Hit All-Time High In October