Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising today, with WTI crude up +1.58% and RBOB gasoline up +0.95%, driven by a weak dollar and escalating geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East. Despite a bearish EIA inventory report showing unexpected supply expansions, prices climb due to tensions. Poland shot down drones in Russia’s air strike on Ukraine, and Israel targeted Hamas leadership in Qatar, violating international law.

OPEC+ agreed to increase crude production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, less than previous months. Reduced Russian output, due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries, tightens global oil supplies. Concerns about sanctions on Russian energy exports due to the war in Ukraine could further impact prices. President Trump considers tariffs on India and China, top importers of Russian crude, to end the conflict.

Saudi Arabia’s cut in crude prices by $1 per barrel for Asian buyers in October indicates weak demand, a more significant reduction than expected. Crude stored on tankers rose by +6.8%, impacting oil prices negatively. OPEC’s production increase and gradual restoration of output capacity are bearish for prices. OPEC Aug crude production hit a two-year high, adding pressure on prices.

The EIA’s weekly report was bearish for crude, showing unexpected rises in inventories. US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories are below seasonal averages, with US production slightly lower than record highs. Baker Hughes reported an increase in active US oil rigs, nearing a 4-year low. These factors contribute to the complex landscape impacting crude prices.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Global Geopolitical Risks Push Crude Prices Higher