November Nymex natural gas closed up +0.061 (+1.90%) as prices reached a 1-week high due to forecasts of above-average US temperatures. US nat-gas production is near record highs, with active rigs at a 2-year high. Forecasts show warmer weather in the US, leading to increased demand for electricity and air conditioning usage.

US (lower-48) dry gas production was 108. bcf/day (+6.4% y/y) on Monday, with state gas demand at 69.8 bcf/day (+4.4% y/y). LNG net flows to US export terminals were 15.8 bcf/day (+10.3% w/w). Electricity output in the US rose +2.3% y/y to 85,663 GWh in the week ended September 20.

Last Thursday’s EIA report showed a neutral impact on nat-gas prices as inventories rose +75 bcf, slightly above market consensus. Nat-gas inventories were up +0.5% y/y and +6.1% above the 5-year average, indicating sufficient supplies. In Europe, gas storage is at 82% capacity, below the 5-year average of 89%.

Baker Hughes reported a decrease in active US nat-gas drilling rigs, falling by -1 to 117 rigs. The number of gas rigs has risen from a 4.5-year low of 94 rigs in September 2024, slightly below the 2-year high of 124 rigs in August 1.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Nat-Gas Prices Rally on Forecasts for Hotter US Temps