Sugar prices plummeted today, with NY sugar hitting a 4-week low, driven by the prospect of increased sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported a 16% y/y rise in sugar output in Brazil’s Center-South in early August, with mills crushing more cane for sugar. However, cumulative sugar output is down 4.7% y/y.

Brazilian sugar mills are prioritizing sugar over ethanol production, with harvesting peaking and drier crops prompting increased sugar output. London sugar recently reached a 3.5-month high after the International Sugar Organization forecast a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, projecting a 231,000 MT shortfall.

Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, reduced its 2025/26 sugar production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT due to lower sugarcane yields from drought and heat. India may allow local sugar mills to export sugar in the upcoming season after abundant monsoon rains led to predictions of a bumper crop.

India’s sugar production is expected to surge by 19% in the 2025/26 season, following a decline in the previous year. Global sugar prices dropped in early July, anticipating a surplus in the 2025/26 season. Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus, with the USDA predicting a record high global production.

Thailand’s sugar production rose by 14% in the 2024/25 season, contributing to the global sugar surplus projection. The USDA foresees a record global sugar production in 2025/26, with increases in human consumption and ending stocks. Brazil, India, and Thailand are all expected to boost sugar production in the upcoming season.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Decline on the Outlook for Higher Brazil Sugar Production