Sugar prices closed higher on Wednesday, with NY world sugar #11 up 0.57% and London ICE white sugar #5 up 1.37%. This increase was driven by a 1% rally in WTI crude oil prices, prompting sugar mills to focus more on ethanol production over sugar, reducing sugar supplies.

Brazil’s sugar production outlook caused NY sugar to hit a 4.25-year low and London sugar a 2.5-week low. Brazil’s Center-South sugar output rose 16% y/y in August, but overall 2025-26 output is down 4.7% y/y. Brazil’s mills are prioritizing sugar over ethanol production as harvesting peaks.

The International Sugar Organization predicted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, with a projected deficit of 231,000 MT. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, lowered its 2025/26 production estimate to 44.5 MMT. Expectations for a global sugar surplus are impacting sugar prices negatively.

India’s potential increase in sugar exports, with a forecasted bumper crop due to abundant monsoon rains, may further impact sugar prices negatively. India’s production is projected to rise 19% y/y to 35 MMT in 2025/26. Higher sugar production in Thailand is also expected to drive prices lower.

The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT. FAS predicted increases in production for Brazil, India, and Thailand. India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories forecasted a 19% y/y increase in sugar production for the country in 2025/26.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Gain as Crude Oil Rallies