Sugar prices closed higher on Monday, with NY world sugar #11 up 0.95% and London ICE white sugar #5 up 0.28%. Dollar weakness prompted short-covering in sugar futures, reaching 1.5-week highs. Last Tuesday, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, London sugar a 4-year low, due to expectations of ample global sugar supplies.

Brazil’s higher sugar output, with a +18% y/y rise in August to 3.872 MT, is pressuring sugar prices. However, cumulative 2025-26 output through August fell -1.9% y/y to 26.758 MMT. India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol in 2025/26, potentially exporting 4 MMT, worsening the surplus.

The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for 2025/26, with production up +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT and consumption up +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT. Expectations of a 7.5 MMT global surplus for 2025/26, as projected by commodities trader Czarnikow, are bearish for prices.

India’s outlook for higher sugar exports due to abundant monsoon rains is negative for prices. India projects a +19% y/y increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a -17.5% y/y decline in 2024/25. Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production estimate was cut to 44.5 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Settle Higher as Dollar Weakness Spurs Short-Covering