November Nymex natural gas (NGX25) closed up by +4.20% on Tuesday, driven by cooler US weather forecasts for mid-October. This shift could increase heating demand for natural gas. US production remains a bearish factor, with the EIA raising its 2025 forecast to 107.14 bcf/day.

US dry gas production was 105.9 bcf/day (+3.7% y/y) on Tuesday, while lower-48 state gas demand was 69.0 bcf/day (-5.8% y/y). Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 15.0 bcf/day (-4.4% w/w). Despite these factors, gas prices are supported by rising US electricity output.

Last week’s EIA report showed a bullish trend for natural gas prices, as inventories rose below market expectations. As of September 26, inventories were +0.4% y/y and +5.0% above their 5-year average. In Europe, gas storage is at 83% capacity. Baker Hughes reported a slight increase in active US gas drilling rigs.

Rich Asplund did not hold any positions in the securities mentioned. The information provided is for informational purposes only. Source: Barchart.com.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Cooler US Weather Forecasts Boost Nat-Gas Prices