The U.S. is set to break another oil production record in 2025, with the Energy Information Administration forecasting 13.53 million barrels per day. This surplus could push prices lower as global inventories rise through 2026, putting pressure on oil prices. Growth in the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico has slowed, indicating capacity gains may be reaching their peak.

The EIA warns that a surplus in global oil markets could lead to downward pressure on prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude expected to average around $65 per barrel this year. Despite anticipated production hikes from OPEC+, the agency predicts inventories will rise by 2.1 million bpd in Q4 2025, keeping supply ahead of demand and prices low.

If production continues to outpace demand, the biggest issue in the oil market may shift from scarcity to surplus, potentially causing further price declines.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: EIA Raises U.S. Oil Output Forecast, Warns Oversupply Could Crush Prices