Amidst a government shutdown, the 10-year Treasury yield is on the decline, impacting mortgage rates. The 10-year note closely correlates with mortgage rates, typically with a two-point spread. Expect mortgage rates near or slightly above 6% when the yield is around 4%.

Chris Whalen, an investment banker, acknowledges the impact of government shutdowns on the 10-year yield. While mortgage rates have been falling since July, recent increases were driven by lenders, not market trends. The FHA may experience delays in processing new loans during the shutdown.

Economist Selma Hepp anticipates lower mortgage rates due to the government shutdown. Investor sentiment may shift towards Treasury securities, pushing yields down and resulting in slightly lower mortgage rates. The shutdown could lead to a drop of 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points in mortgage rates.

Post-shutdown, economic uncertainty looms. Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni notes ADP’s report of 32,000 job losses in September, signaling a weakening job market. Danielle Hale predicts a gradual decrease in mortgage rates post-shutdown, despite various impacting factors.

Economist Anthony Smith highlights the housing market’s challenges, exacerbated by high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. Fratantoni observes the bond market’s focus on job market versus inflation, both pushing rates in different directions. Monitoring the bond market can indicate mortgage rate trends.

Locking in a mortgage rate during a dip is ideal, but challenging due to fluctuating rates. It’s not worth the stress over minor rate changes. Understanding mortgage rate trends and tracking 10-year Treasury yields can be beneficial for prospective homebuyers. Laura Grace Tarpley edited the article.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: How will the government shutdown impact mortgage rates? Experts weigh in.