Tesla set a new record with 497,099 deliveries in Q3 2025. Shares dropped by 2% on Oct. 2 due to concerns about Q4 and 2026 deliveries being impacted by the US EV tax credit expiration. Analysts predict a mid-teens percentage decline in Q4 deliveries, but maintain a fair value estimate of $250 for Tesla.

Despite the positive Q3 numbers, Tesla shares are deemed overvalued, trading around 80% above fair value. Market focus on autonomous driving software overlooks the fact that it is still in early testing stages, with Tesla employees present in all ride-hailing vehicles. This points to a longer testing period than anticipated for widespread robotaxis.

Read more at Morningstar: Shares Down Despite Record Deliveries