The National Truckload Index (NTI) rose 2% last week to $2.36 per mile, but this increase is more significant due to lack of seasonal support and muted response in truckload tender rejections (OTRI).

NTI has jumped over 2% in a week seven times in 2025, typically preceded by a rise in tender rejections. Recent disruption was linked to immigration crackdowns affecting foreign-born truck drivers.

About 18% of truck drivers are foreign-born, with 60% from the Americas and 40% from Eastern Europe and India. Larger carriers are less affected by recent immigration crackdowns compared to smaller carriers and owner-operators who dominate the spot market.

The spot market, accounting for 15-20% of total domestic freight volume, is more sensitive to recent immigration enforcement activities, affecting margins and opportunities for brokers.

Truckload tender volumes fell 3% last week, with rejection rates holding steady. Capacity disruptions like holidays and recent crackdowns have made the market more reactive.

Capacity has been declining for nearly three years, with an average net loss of 264 carriers per week since October 2023, highlighting the sector’s fragility.

The truckload market’s stability despite weakening demand suggests that capacity is exiting the market at a similar pace as demand, making networks less flexible.

FreightWaves Chart of the Week showcases data points from SONAR to visualize real-time freight market conditions, with new datasets and client experiences being released weekly.

Spot rates are climbing without support, indicating a deeper issue in the truckload sector, as demand declines and the market remains fragile despite capacity erosion.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Spot rates climb but lack support