Stock indexes fell today as the US government shut down, with S&P 500 down -0.18%, Dow Jones down -0.19%, and Nasdaq down -0.27%. Dollar index hit a one-week low, gold prices rose. Shutdown delays key reports like jobless claims and payroll data. Markets pricing in 100% chance of Fed rate cut.

US labor market shows signs of weakness, with Sep ADP employment change down -32,000. Mortgage applications fell -12.7%, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 6.46%. White House warns of layoffs during shutdown. Stock markets focus on trade news. Overseas markets mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.44%.

Rising corporate earnings expectations are bullish for stocks, with S&P 500 companies expected to post +6.9% earnings growth in Q3. Markets pricing in 100% chance of -25 bp rate cut at FOMC meeting. Economic focus this week on ISM manufacturing index, jobless claims, and payroll reports.

Interest rates: 10-year T-notes up, yield down to 4.095%. European bond yields down on T-note weakness. Eurozone CPI in line with expectations. Swaps discount 1% chance of ECB rate cut. Stock movers: Corteva down -5%, AES up +13%. Cryptocurrency stocks rise, Nike up +3%, Carvana up +3%.

Earnings reports on 10/1 from Acuity Inc, Cal-Maine Foods Inc, Conagra Brands Inc, Novagold Resources Inc, Rezolve AI PLC, and RPM International Inc. No positions held by the author. For informational purposes only.

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