Sugar prices saw mixed results on Wednesday, with NY sugar reaching a new 4.5-year low. London sugar also hit a 4.25-year low due to increased sugar output in Brazil. Brazil’s Center-South sugar output rose by +10.8% y/y, with a +0.8% y/y increase in cumulative 2025-26 sugar output. Global sugar surplus projections add to the bearish outlook.

India’s potential for higher sugar exports due to a bumper crop from abundant monsoon rains casts a shadow on sugar prices. India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 8% above normal, with projected sugar production for 2025/26 expected to climb +19% y/y. The possibility of diverting sugar to ethanol production further exacerbates the surplus.

Thailand’s projected increase in sugar production by +5% y/y for the 2025/26 season adds to the bearish sentiment in the sugar market. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for 2025/26, the sixth consecutive year of deficits. Global sugar production is projected to rise, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand.

The USDA’s projections for record sugar production and consumption in the 2025/26 season indicate ample supplies in the market. Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to see significant increases in sugar production, contributing to the growing surplus. The outlook for sugar prices remains weighed down by the oversupply in the global market.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Weighed Down by the Outlook for Ample Supplies