Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations

Earnings Date: October 21, 2025 (after market close)
Consensus Estimates: EPS $1.47 | Revenue $4.64 billion

Earnings Overview

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) is scheduled to report Q3 2025 results on October 21 after market close.
Wall Street analysts expect EPS of $1.47 and revenue around $4.64 billion.
In the same quarter last year (Q3 2024), TXN delivered EPS of $1.47 on revenue of $4.15 billion, implying year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 11.8%.
Earnings per share are projected to remain flat YoY, reflecting stable profitability amid recovering demand in industrial and automotive segments.

Management previously guided for Q3 2025 revenue between $4.45 billion and $4.80 billion, and EPS of $1.36 to $1.60, suggesting performance likely near the midpoint of expectations.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

• Average Rating: Hold to Moderate Buy
• Target Range: $195 – $220
• Analyst Focus: Industrial and automotive chip demand, free cash flow recovery, and cap-ex moderation.
• Recent Moves: Wolfe Research upgraded TXN to Outperform on expectation of improving demand and cap-ex wind-down; Bank of America remains cautious due to limited AI exposure and valuation risk.
• Options Market: Implied move ~ ±4% post-earnings; IV remains elevated (~33%) signaling a market brace for volatility.

Technical Analysis (as of Oct 18 2025)

• Price: $176.58
• 50-Day SMA: $186.94
• 200-Day SMA: $186.25 → Price below both averages = bearish bias.
• RSI: 43.17 (neutral, not oversold)
• Williams %R: –61.97 (neutral)
• ADX: 28.62 → moderate trend strength
• Std. Dev: 3.50 → moderate volatility
• Fibonacci Levels:
  • Support – $174.57 | $172.76 | $171.34
  • Resistance – $177.63 | $179.43 | $180.85

Trend View: Below key moving averages with neutral momentum; direction likely to be defined by earnings and guidance.

Trading Bias:

• Long Entry: Above $181 with RSI > 50 and ADX > 30 confirmation.
• Short Entry: Below $171 if bearish momentum strengthens.

Key Takeaways

• YoY growth: Revenue expected +11.8%, EPS flat.
• Valuation: Stock at ~$176 trades below long-term trend lines but within fair value range based on consensus targets.
• Catalyst: Q3 results and forward guidance on industrial/auto demand will drive next move.
• Risk: Weak guidance or soft end-market demand could trigger a break below support ($171).
• Upside Scenario: Beat + strong 2026 outlook could reclaim $187 – $190 range.
• Stock Performance: Down roughly 17% since last earnings