Sugar prices continued to fall, hitting a 1-week low in NY and a 4-year low in London due to a global sugar surplus projection of +4.1 MMT for the 2025/26 season. Brazil’s increased sugar output and India’s expectation of a bumper crop are adding to the downward pressure on prices.

Brazil’s sugar output rose by +15.7% in the first half of September, but cumulative 2025-26 output is down -0.1% y/y. India projects a +19% y/y increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26 due to favorable monsoon rains, following a -17.5% y/y decline in 2024/25.

India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production, possibly prompting an increase in sugar exports beyond expectations. Thailand expects a +5% y/y increase in sugar production for 2025/26, following a +14% y/y rise in 2024/25. NY sugar saw a brief rally due to lower sugar content in Brazil’s cane.

The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for 2025/26, down from -4.88 MMT in 2024/25. The USDA projects a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, with a +7.5% increase in ending stocks. Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to see production increases.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: The Outlook for Abundant Global Supplies Weighs on Sugar Prices